Monday, 11 April 2016

2016 Wind trajectories (Apr 7-11)

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model high altitude air masses in the spring with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. Each week, backward and forward trajectories are examined with respect to source and destination in the following manner. The forward trajectories are prognostic (5 days into the future) based on forecast wind fields while the backward trajectories are diagnostic and based on analyzed wind fields (5 days previous).

THE WEEK OF APRIL 7-11, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 7-11, 2016:

Again, this week there are three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross the prairies over the next few days.

Reverse trajectories (RT)
None to report this week.

Forward Trajectories (FT)
This week there are again three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba over the next few days.  Those involved with Diamondback moth pheromone trap monitoring will want to consider deploying their traps.

Weather forecasts (7 day)
Grande Prairie: