2016 Wind trajectories (Apr 7-11)

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model high altitude air masses in the spring with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. Each week, backward and forward trajectories are examined with respect to source and destination in the following manner. The forward trajectories are prognostic (5 days into the future) based on forecast wind fields while the backward trajectories are diagnostic and based on analyzed wind fields (5 days previous).

THE WEEK OF APRIL 7-11, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 7-11, 2016:

Again, this week there are three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross the prairies over the next few days.

Reverse trajectories (RT)

None to report this week.

Forward Trajectories (FT)

This week there are again three forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico that are predicted to cross Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba over the next few days.  Those involved with Diamondback moth pheromone trap monitoring will want to consider deploying their traps.

Weather forecasts (7 day)
Winnipeg: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html
Brandon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-52_metric_e.html
Saskatoon: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-40_metric_e.html
Regina: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html
Edmonton: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
Lethbridge: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html
Grande Prairie: https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-31_metric_e.html

2016 Wind trajectories (Apr 1-7) and Spring monitoring!

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model high altitude air masses in the spring with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. Each week, backward and forward trajectories are examined with respect to source and destination in the following manner. The forward trajectories are prognostic (5 days into the future) based on forecast wind fields while the backward trajectories are diagnostic and based on analyzed wind fields (5 days previous).

THE WEEK OF APRIL 1-7, 2016:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 1-7, 2016:

Reverse trajectories (RT)

None to report this week.

Forward Trajectories (FT)

Trajectories crossing over California and Mexico are projected to cross Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba this week.  Those involved with Diamondback moth pheromone trap monitoring will want to consider deploying their traps.

Wind Trajectories for the Canadian Prairies (May 13, 2015)

   Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions to the Canadian Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). 

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

    Updated: May 13, 2015

    1. Reverse trajectories (RT) - During April and early May, reverse trajectories winds were originating over the Pacific Ocean and tracking in a west to east direction across North America.  Since May 8th most are now originating over the Arctic.

    a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) - Nothing to report.

    b. Mexico and southwest USA (SW) - Nothing to report.

    2. Forward trajectories (FT)

    There are a number of forward trajectories from southern USA and Mexico predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days. The Imperial Valley and Mexicali FTs are predicted to cross southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  The Santa Maria FT is predicted to cross into central Alberta. 

Wind Trajectories for the Canadian Prairies (May 5, 2015)

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions to the Canadian Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). 

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

Updated: May 4-5, 2015

1. Reverse trajectories

a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) - Between May 1-3, 2015, the predominate air mass source is continues to be the Pacific Northwest.  Reverse trajectories model output for 10 prairie locations and indicated that winds arriving to the Canadian prairies originated from northwest USA between April 25-27, 2015.  

2. Forward trajectories

Between may 1-3, 2015, there were five forward trajectories originating over Texas and California that are predicted to cross over the prairies over the 2-3 days.  An example of forward trajectories for the Santa Maria CA example is below.  Note how air masses are predicted to land in northeast Saskatchewan, northern Manitoba, and into Ontario.

Wind Trajectories for the Canadian Prairies (April 27, 2015)

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions to the Canadian Prairies in 2015

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). 

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.  Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

Updated: April 25-27, 2015

1. Reverse trajectories

a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) - 49 Reverse trajectories (RTs) were recorded on the Prairies from northwest USA between April 25-27, 2015.

b. Mexico and SW USA (SW) – Five locations (4 in MB and 1 in SK) reported RT’s that originated from southern Texas over this same time frame.

2. Forward trajectories

Nine forward trajectories are predicted to cross the prairies from Mexico and the USA over the next five days.

2015 Diamondback Moth (cont'd)

Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development requested that DBM pheromone traps be deployed in fields at the end of April owing to the relatively warm field conditions.  Refer to this link to view the 2015 Alberta Diamondback Moth Pheromone Trap Reporting Map.

2015 Diamondback Moth

April 24, 2015 - A field update from Dr. J. Soroka of AAFC-Saskatoon reports sightings of her first striped flea beetles of the year on yellow sticky card traps set out from April 10-17, 2015.  She also noted that she spotted her first Diamondback moth of the season on the same trap type that was deployed in a shelterbelt on the AAFC Research Farm in Saskatoon from April 17-24, 2015.  Dr. Soroka noted that, "The DBM moth did not appear pristine but neither did it appear to have hitchhiked from Mexico".

Wind Trajectories for the Canadian Prairies (April 21, 2015)

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.   Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

Updated: April 21, 2015

1. Reverse trajectories
a. Pacific Northwest (PNW) - Nothing to report.
b. Mexico and SW USA (SW) – Nothing to report.

2. Forward trajectories

     Three forward trajectories, all from NW USA, are predicted to cross the prairies over the next five days.

Forward Trajectory Count Dates
Location ID	Initial Date
BOZEMAN_MONTANA	21/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON	21/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO	21/04/2015

Wind Trajectories for the Canadian Prairies (April 15, 2015)

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track air masses arriving across the prairies back to their point of origin.   Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies.  

Updated: April 15, 2015

1. Reverse trajectories
There were 24 locations in western Canada that had winds originating from northwestern USA on April 15, 2015. No reverse trajectories originating from Mexico and southern USA.

2. Forward trajectories
Forward wind trajectories, originating from northwestern USA and southern USA/Mexico, are predicted to cross the prairies within the next five days.

Forward Trajectory Count Dates
Location ID	Count Dates
EASTERN_WASHINGTON	12
BOZEMAN_MONTANA	12
MOSCOW_IDAHO	11
SANTA_MARIA_CALIFORNIA	5
MANHATTAN_KANSAS	5
MEXICALI_MEXICO	2
IMPERIAL_VALLEY_CALIFORNIA	2
WESLACO_TEXAS	1
LOUISIANA	1

Wind Trajectories for the Canadian Prairies (April 7, 2015)

Wind trajectories Related to Diamondback Moth (DBM) and Aster Leafhopper Introductions

BACKGROUND:  Potential wind events capable of carrying insect pests from source areas in the USA can be identified by following trajectories for air parcels through time. High altitude air masses, originating from southern locations, frequently move northerly to Canadian destinations. Insect pest species such as Diamondback moth and Aster leafhoppers, traditionally unable to overwinter above the 49th parallel, can utilize these air masses in the spring to move north from Mexico and the United States (southern or Pacific northwest). Data acquired from Environment Canada is compiled by Olfert et al. (AAFC-Saskatoon) to track and model high altitude air masses in the spring with respect to potential introductions of insect pests onto the Canadian prairies. Each week, backward and forward trajectories are examined with respect to source and destination in the following manner. The forward trajectories are prognostic (5 days into the future) based on forecast wind fields while the backward trajectories are diagnostic and based on analyzed wind fields (5 days previous).


FOR THE WEEK OF APRIL 3-7, 2015:  Wind trajectory data processing by AAFC-Saskatoon Staff began in April.  Reverse Trajectories track arriving air masses back to their point of origin while Forward Trajectories predict favourable winds expected to arrive across the Canadian Prairies for the week of April 3-7, 2015:

Reverse trajectories (RT) 

Pacific Northwest (PNW) – The number of reverse trajectories from Prairie locations with links to the PNW continues to be relatively high. the following 25 locations had RT’s, originating from the PNW, that crossed the prairies on April 1 and 2, 2015. Of particular interest were the northern AB locations reported for April 7.

Reverse Trajectories Originating from PNW Arriving at Prairie Locations
Location ID	Arriving Date (dd-m-year)	Latitude	Longitude
WANHAM_AB	07/04/2015	55.7	-118.4
VEGREVILLE_AB	07/04/2015	53.5	-112
SEDGEWICK_AB	07/04/2015	52.8	-111.7
RYCROFT_AB	07/04/2015	55.8	-118.7
REGINA_SK	07/04/2015	50.5	-104.5
PROVOST_AB	07/04/2015	52.4	-110.3
OLDS_AB	07/04/2015	51.8	-114.1
LETHBRIDGE_AB	07/04/2015	49.7	-112.8
KINDERSLEY_SK	07/04/2015	51.5	-109.1
GRENFELL_SK	07/04/2015	50.4	-102.9
GRANDE_PRAIRIE_AB	07/04/2015	55.2	-118.8
GAINSBOROUGH_SK	07/04/2015	49.2	-101.4
FORT_VERMILION_AB	07/04/2015	58.4	-116
BEISEKER_AB	07/04/2015	51.4	-113.5
ANDREW_AB	07/04/2015	53.9	-112.3
VEGREVILLE_AB	06/04/2015	53.5	-112
SEDGEWICK_AB	06/04/2015	52.8	-111.7
OLDS_AB	06/04/2015	51.8	-114.1
LETHBRIDGE_AB	06/04/2015	49.7	-112.8
GRANDE_PRAIRIE_AB	06/04/2015	55.2	-118.8
BEISEKER_AB	06/04/2015	51.4	-113.5
LETHBRIDGE_AB	05/04/2015	49.7	-112.8
KINDERSLEY_SK	05/04/2015	51.5	-109.1
BEISEKER_AB	05/04/2015	51.4	-113.5
LETHBRIDGE_AB	04/04/2015	49.7	-112.8

Forward Trajectories (FT)
Forward trajectories originating from the following locations are predicted to cross the prairies within the next five days:

Forward Trajectory source locations predicted to cross the Canadian prairies
Location ID	Initial Date (dd-m-year)
BOZEMAN_MONTANA	07/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON	07/04/2015
IMPERIAL_VALLEY_CALIFORNIA	07/04/2015
MEXICALI_MEXICO	07/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO	07/04/2015
BOZEMAN_MONTANA	06/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON	06/04/2015
LOUISIANA	06/04/2015
MANHATTAN_KANSAS	06/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO	06/04/2015
SANTA_MARIA_CALIFORNIA	06/04/2015
BOZEMAN_MONTANA	05/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON	05/04/2015
MANHATTAN_KANSAS	05/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON	04/04/2015
MANHATTAN_KANSAS	04/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO	04/04/2015
EASTERN_WASHINGTON	03/04/2015
MOSCOW_IDAHO	03/04/2015

The April 6 forward trajectory from Santa Maria, California, is predicted to cross over southern Alberta on April 11. The forward trajectory from Mexicali should cross southern Manitoba about April 8. The Imperial Valley trajectory is predicted to cross southern Manitoba on April 9.  Though the prairies were forecasted to expect snow (April 7), conditions are predicted to warm up over the next few days.

Forecast for Lethbridge:

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-30_metric_e.html

Forecast for Winnipeg:

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/mb-38_metric_e.html